Tom O'Neil's Inside Track

How will ‘First Man’ take off at the Oscars?


Now that Universal’s “First Man” has finally blasted off onto the big screens in America’s movie theaters, it’s officially in the Oscar space race. How many nominations and wins will it land?

It’s no longer orbiting a Best Picture win, which seemed possible back in early September when it was tied with “Roma” among Gold Derby’s Experts and it was the clear favorite of most of our users. “First Man” was greeted with lots of early euphoria by media and film industry insiders when it debuted at the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, but now none of our Experts pick it to prevail. It’s fallen to third place in our Experts’ and Users’ rankings for Best Picture behind “A Star Is Born” and “Roma” and must fend off fast-rising support by “Green Book” (also distributed by Universal) and “The Favourite” among the Experts. See latest rankings and racetrack odds based upon combining the Experts’ Oscar predictions.

“First Man” fell short at the box office this past weekend, but it faced strong competition for adult audiences from that sudden super-nova “A Star Is Born.” Film reviews are aces, which may matter more to academy members: 88 score from Rotten Tomatoes and 84 from Metacritic. Most important of all is the fact that its cast and crew are academy darlings, including director Damien Chazelle and music composer Justin Hurwitz (Oscar winners for “La La Land”), writer Josh Singer (Oscar champ for “Spotlight”) and stars Ryan Gosling (two-time nominee) and recent Emmy and SAG Awards victor Claire Foy.

Tom O'Neil's Inside Track
Editor and President Tom O'Neil founded Gold Derby in 2000.
Tom's Latest Updated Predictions
Oscars Nominations 2019
( Best Picture )
Bet Points: 100
  • 1
    Green Book
    Green Book
    42/1
  • 2
    A Star Is Born
    A Star Is Born
    10/1
  • 3
    Roma
    Roma
    10/1
  • 4
    The Favourite
    The Favourite
    23/2
  • 5
    Black Panther
    Black Panther
    20/1
  • 6
    Vice
    Vice
    18/1
  • 7
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    11/1
  • 8
    BlacKKKlansman
    BlacKkKlansman
    7/1
  • 9
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    100/1
  • 10
    First Man
    First Man
    15/2
  • Updated on: 03 Nov 18, 22:32 pm PT